Jet Set Dynasty Podcasts

Banner0

Let’s Look at Some Top College RBs

College Football officially starts tonight and it got me in the mood to watch some tape on potential members of the 2020 draft class. These guys aren’t playing tonight but they are some popular names across the college landscape. Here are my quick thoughts on D’andre Swift from Georgia and AJ Dillon from Boston College.

D’andre Swift (Tape- 2018 vs Auburn and Florida)

I have to admit I have some Georgia bias as they are tied for my favorite college team. This guy is my RB1. I’ve watched him since his freshman year and I don’t think you can get any better than this guy. Swift is not just his name- but also the way he runs. Swift change of direction, swift decision making finding the hole and swift in his ankle breaking techniques. But being swift isn’t the only way he wins.

 For a guy that has gamebreaking speed (and gets to his top speed insanely quick) he isn’t afraid to lower the should and finish runs with a vengeance. Georgia backs aren’t known for their pass catching ability but he has strong and confident hands when he has the chance to catch the ball. I haven’t seen this kind combination of power and speed since Saquon Barkley. Yes I’m serious. D’andre Swift is my RB1 and possibly my 1.01 depending on how these WRs shake out this year. I’m the conductor of the D’andre Swift hype train so y’all better hop on board before you get left in the dust.  

AJ Dillon- Boston College (Tape- 2018 vs Miami)

There’s been some talk about AJ Dillon being a top back in next year’s draft. From the little tape I’ve watched I’m inclined to believe that he is probably in the second tier of RBs. I think the D’andre Swifts and Travis Etienne’s of the world are clearly above him but AJ Dillon will be a quality prospect next year. He’s one of the bigger backs this year coming in around 6’0 245lbs but he has quick feet for a big man. He’s fantastic in between the tackles and always falls forward for positive gains. He doesn’t have much wiggle to him but he makes up for it with a punishing running style that makes him tough to bring down when he gets going. He lacks the breakaway speed to make him a truly elite back in the NFL but has enough speed to break of chunk plays and be effective on the outside. 

He needs to improve on his pass blocking but he has the tools to fix that issue. Not super smooth catching the ball but does it well enough. His vision at the line of scrimmage and at the second level is what will separate him from the boring plodding NFL backs that we all hate. He reminds me a bit of James Conner with his vision and Derrick Henry’s running style and quick feet. He’s probably a back that will need a complementary piece to him in the NFL but he has the skills to succeed at the next level. 

Those are my thoughts as they are fresh in my head after watching a few pieces of tape on these guys from last year. There’s a chance my opinions may change as I gather new information (probably not on Swift, but potentially on Dillon). Let me know if you agree or disagree on twitter @FootballBry15 and as always don’t forget to check out JetSet Fantasy football on all major podcast platforms for more football takes, fun and stupidity then you can shake a stick at.

Don’t Discount Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman may be the most underrated back in football. He missed most of last year battling injuries and has fallen to the back of people’s minds. With Tevin Coleman out of the town and a full offseason to heal I think Devonta Freeman is primed for one of the best years of his career.  

Coming off a year where he only played two games after being hindered by a groin injury, Devonta Freeman is being criminally undervalued. He is currently the 18th RB off the board behind the likes of Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack and Kerryon Johnson. Those are some names that haven’t consistently produced at a high level that are being taken in front of a guy that has finished as an RB1. 

Freeman has consistently produced as a top 15 RB throughout his career and that was with Tevin Coleman cutting into his bottom line. Now Coleman is on the west coast fighting for carries with the 49ers and Devonta’s biggest threat is Ito Smith (I used the word “threat” very loosely here). He’s primed to finally be a full blown bell cow back. Bonus if you are in a PPR league- Freeman hasn’t had less than 30 receptions in a year (except for last year of course) and has had as many as 73. I’m not sure he will get to 73 again, but I think it’s a safe bet to say his floor is about 50 additional receptions added to his bell cow workload.

Even though sometimes it feels like he’s been in the league for forever- he is still in his prime and is only 27 years of age. Freeman is primed for a RB1 type season and I can see him being the steal of your fantasy drafts this year.  Agree or disagree let me know on Twitter @FootballBry15. Don’t forget to listen to Jet Set Fantasy Football podcast every week (rate, review, subscribe) to play along with some games, listen to some bad jokes and some less bad fantasy football thoughts. 

Saquon vs CMC- the Battle for the #1 Spot

I have to admit- I am selfishly writing this article. I recently found out in my longest standing redraft league that I will have the 1st pick in the draft this year. There’s a consensus quickly forming for the #1 overall pick in PPR leagues: Saquon Barkley seems to be the most popular pick to go off the board first. However, Christian McCaffery had himself a helluva season last year and I think he could make the case for best back this year (especially in PPR leagues). Let’s make a case for both guys to be the #1 pick and see who has the stronger argument. 

Saquon Barkley-  352 touches for 361.60 PPR Points last year

Saquon exploded onto the scene last year as well as anyone could have hoped for finishing as RB3 on the year. He only had one game under 10 pts and only 3 under 20 points all season. OBJ has been swapped out for Golden Tate (who is facing a 4 game suspension) and the other unproven weapons in the offense don’t strike fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators. How will Saquon perform being the primary focus of defenses week to week? I also think that if rookie QB Daniel Jones see any serious playing time this year that boosts Saquon more because they will most likely lean even heavier on the run game. 

The only other thing that scares me is the miniscule chance of a one year wonder.. We’ve seen guys throughout the years like Peyton Hillis, RGIII, Gary Barnidge, Trent Richardson and Jeremy Hill have one monster seasons then fall off the map. I’m not saying that’s where I think Saquon is heading- but I’m a big proponent of safety first in the early parts of the draft which may keep me away from Saquon at the first overall. 

Christian McCaffery- 343 touches for 380.5 PPR Points

CMC finished the fantasy season as the RB1- almost a full 20 points ahead of Saquon. CMC had 4 games under 20 points last year but ZERO under 10 (13.50 PPR points in week 1 was his season low). That is the kind of consistency I like to see out of my #1 pick. 

There have been some rumblings that Panther’s Head Coach Ron Rivera has wanted to scale back CMC’s plays- but not his touches. Not sure how that makes sense but that is the one concern I have for CMC. They don’t have a proven backup or change of pace back in Carolina and CMC looks like he is ready for a full workload by putting on a ton of muscle. The other concern is that we never really see a RB put back to back overall RB1 seasons. 

I’m not sure you can really go wrong with either of these guys as a the 1st pick of your draft. If I was a betting man (which I am) I would probably lean toward CMC as my first choice off the board. The chances of him repeating as the overall #1 are low, but the fact he had double digit scoring every single week last year is enough for me to take him when the draft clock starts ticking. 

Who are you taking to kickoff your fantasy drafts this year? Let me know on Twitter @FootballBry15. Don’t forget to listen to Jet Set Fantasy Football podcast every week (rate, review, subscribe) to play along with some games, listen to some bad jokes and some less bad fantasy football thoughts. 

Let’s Take a Look at Training Camp Battles

Training Camps are in full swing. Everyone is reported and we have already had our first taste of preseason action in Canton with the Falcons and Broncos kicking the season off with a Denver win in a 14-10 barn burner. The HoF game is such a rollercoaster ride of emotions; there’s the excitement of the first game of the year immediately followed by a showcase of terrible throws, embarrassing penalties and drops on drops on drops. But I digress- now that we are a few weeks into camp there’s been an air of clarity around some fantasy relevant camp battles. Whether by injury or first team reps here are some positions that are starting to take shape.

Steelers WR2 Job

Donte Moncrief, Diontae Johnson and James Washington are all fighting to be starting every week across from Juju Smith-Schuster. There are 168 targets looking for a home now that AB took a hot air balloon ride to Oakland. Some of those targets will be absorbed by TE Vance McDonald and RBs James Connor and Jaylen Samuels but the bulk of them will find themselves in the arms of one of the 3 WRs. 

Moncrief had the first crack at the starting job but has missed a lot of time with an injury opening the door for Diontae Johnson and James Washington. Washington struggled to get on the field his rookie year and when he did he struggled with some drops. Moncrief has came back from injury and continued to play with the first team.

Early in camp James Washington struggled to keep Dionte Johnson at bay. Johnson had some people comping him to AB coming out at the draft (yes I know it’s laughable, but there are some similar traits) so there are some high expectations. My money is on Moncrief starting the year off in the lineup (barring injury). I’m excited to see how Washington and Johnson perform during the preseason and one can pull away from the other. 

Denver RB Job

UDFA Phillip Lindsay finished as RB12 last year but the Broncos drafted Royce Freeman in 3rd round and they are not ready to give up on him yet. Devantae Booker has managed to hang around as well even though he has rarely impressed on the field. 

Neither Freeman or Lindsay played in the Hall of Fame game which was expected. Khalfani Mohammed was probably the best player on the field but I think the backfield is too muddled for him to have any fantasy impact.

This is going to be a tough situation to monitor but it looks like if the Broncos get their way it will be a near 50/50 split between Lindsay and Freeman which would signal a significant regression for Lindsay and a possible improvement for Freeman. Denver also just brought in Theo Riddick as a passing threat out of the backfield to muddle the backfield even more.

Patriots WR 2 Job

There’s not much to watch here expect to note that 1st rounder N’Keal Harry has been outperformed by UDFA Jakobi Meyers. I don’t believe that Jakobi Meyers will be the starting outside receiver for the Patriots come week one but I do believe that the Patriots will not rush Harry into a starting role if he isn’t ready.

Eagles RB1 Job

The Eagles have a very crowded backfield with a lot of talent between Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement. Philadelphia has already admitted to a full blown RBBC (running back by committee) which is going to put a cap on all of these players. 

Jordan Howard seems to have a bit of a stranglehold on the first two downs so far. Add that to the likelihood that he will be the main guy to get goal line carries makes him the guy with the safest floor in this backfield. 

Reports have been coming out that Miles Sanders has looked electric. He may not start the season as the lead back but could end up as the highest scoring fantasy player in that backfield. If I was gambling man (oh wait- I am) then I would take the safe floor of Jordan Howard this year. Sproles will probably eat into some of Sanders opportunity so sign me up for the former Bear to be the top dog for 2019. 

As fantasy drafts are kicking off through the month of August it’s important to keep an eye on these players who could win you your league by making a more informed dart throw in your later rounds. Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @FootballBry15 and be sure to listen to JetSet Fantasy Football every week for more dazzling football analysis.



If You’re Dumb Enough to Watch the HoF Game (like me)- Here’s Who to Keep an Eye On

Football is finally here! It’s been 24 weeks since the Super Bowl and our last taste of professional football (don’t come at me with that AAF nonsense). The HoF game is this Thursday @ 8PM ET- although it’s a poor excuse for a football game I still need to get my fix. Since it’s a bonus preseason game don’t expect any big names to even bother suiting up- but here are some young players that are looking for a chance to make a name for themselves.

Falcons

Qadree Ollison- RB

The 5th round rookie was in a committee at Pitt but showed flashes as a good in between the tackles runner with an extra gear. Best case scenario for Ollison is he beats out Brian Hill and Kenjon Barner for the 3rd spot on the depth chart and maybe gets a chance at goal line carries. I think Q’adree is the most talented out of the backs mentioned above and maybe even better than Ito Smith. Ollison is one of the few guys you’ll see this week that might actually have a real role come September. 

Russell Gage- WR

Gage was an electric receiver/gadget player at LSU. He didn’t really make an impact his rookie year. He had 3 grabs for 36 yards in the preseason last year but didn’t make a real impact on the regular season stat sheet until late in the year. He’s just a depth guy but he might have a chance to ball out this preseason.   

Marcus Green- WR

Marcus Green was a bit of a surprise pick back in May. Small school and small in stature but an electric athlete- he is deep enough on the depth chart that he might get some quality time on the field this week. Let’s see how his athleticism translates to the NFL. 

Broncos

Juwan Winfree/Trinity Benson- WR

I put these two guys together because it’s the same story. They are both getting some hype early in camp so let’s see if they produce in Canton. The 6th rounder (Winfree) and UDFA (Benson) are vying for one of the last spots in the WR room so I think they will get a lot of time to fight it out. 

Kelvin McKnight-WR

The UDFA rookie from Samford stepped into the slot last week when Daesean Hamilton went down with a hamstring injury. He may not be the sexiest name out there but he might be one of the few players to actually have a chance to make a regular season impact that get real playing time this week. Let’s see what he can do in his first live game action.

Also if you’re a sucker like me and want to get some action on the game, my Hall of Fame lock of the week is the under (currently sitting at 34 points) the last 13 HoF games have averaged 33.7 points. You are welcome for the free money and in depth football analysis. Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @FootballBry15 and be sure to listen to Jet Set Fantasy Football every week wherever you listen to podcasts. 

The Cardinals are Being Crowned and that Scares Me

There has been a lot of buzz around the Cardinal’s offense this offseason. Tons of Twitter accounts are ready to crown the Cardinals as the best offense in the NFL. There’s a lot to be excited about- Kliff Kingsbury bringing the air-raid offense to the NFL, Kyler Murray taking the reins at QB, and some exciting weapons that were added for Kyler as well. There are two main questions for me that I think people are overlooking- can we trust the rookies to produce consistently and can the Arizona offensive line hold up long enough to keep Kyler Murray upright?  

Now don’t get me wrong here- I’m a Kyler Murray truther. I think he is one of the best blends of athleticism, arm talent and accuracy that we have seen in a long time. His size doesn’t concern me and I think he is smart and focused enough to be a quality NFL signal caller. But let’s remember that the move from college to pro is undoubtedly the hardest transition of any position on the field for QBs. Historically we have seen some really talented QBs struggle in their rookie year. During their rookie seasons Peyton Manning threw for more interceptions than touchdowns, Matt Ryan only threw 16 touchdowns, Jared Goff looked like he was going to be the next big bust and Eli Manning had a completion percentage under 50%. Remember the adjustment period.

Let’s not forget that Murray isn’t the only new addition to this offense. Kliff Kingsbury is replacing Steve Wilks after last year’s dumpster fire and he is bringing the air raid offense to the pros. I’m not sure what this is going to look like in the NFL but I am worried. Chip Kelly struggled bringing his up tempo spread offense to the big leagues and I’m concerned to see how the air raid offense is going to translate as well. The air raid offense relies on QBs to make calls at the line of scrimmage to make adjustments and I’m worried that might be a lot of pressure to put on a rookie QB. 

There are a lot of new rookie weapons for Kyler to play with this year. Andy Isabella was taken in the second round and Hakeem Butler in the fourth were two exciting pieces added in May. Again though- relying on (multiple) rookies to make an instant impact is not a formula for success. Second year wideout Christian Kirk was one of my favorite players in the draft last year and I think he’s primed to have a big year and old reliable Larry Fitzgerald will be Kyler’s security blanket.

Let’s talk about my biggest concern for Kyler Murray and the Cardinal’s offensive success this year- the offensive line. After losing Mike Iupati and replacing him with former Seahawk JR Sweezy, there has not been much improvement on this line who gave up 52 sacks last year (5th most in the league). Add that to the fact they didn’t draft an offensive lineman until the 6th round I’m worried that offensive line isn’t going to be able to give Kyler Murray the protection to succeed. Obviously Kyler is obviously much more athletic than Josh Rosen, but i’d like to see him have the opportunity to make plays from the pocket because his accuracy is so deadly. 

I think Kyler has the ability to be a top 10 NFL QB- but I think we are rushing him this year. I expect some typical rookie struggles paired with some sub-pair supporting casts that will be improved upon in the coming seasons. What do you think? Agree or disagree let me know on Twitter @FootballBry15. Don’t forget to listen to Jet Set Fantasy Football podcast every week (rate, review, subscribe) to play along with some games, listen to some bad jokes and some less bad fantasy football thoughts.

Don’t Discount the Slot Receiver

Dec 30, 2018; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (19) reacts to the final moments of the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns game on the scoreboard after the Steelers defeated the Cincinnati Bengals at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh won 16-13. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

It’s no secret- the NFL is a passing league. While flashy names like Antonio Brown, O’dell Beckham Jr and Mike Evans come to mind when you think top performers- the players hiding in the slot can often times become the players that help you win your fantasy league. 

I dove into wideout positioning with the help of The Quantum Edge WR/CB Matchup tool to see which of the top performing wide receivers from 2018 spent the majority of their time in the slot and I was surprised by the results (free plug for these guys because this article wouldn’t have happened without them- check out their Twitter @TheQuantEdge and their website www.TheQuantEdge.com). 

11 of the top 24 PPR WRs spent the majority of their time in the slot. Here’s how the list looks (as a bonus I’ve included last years ADP according to www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com):

WR 5- Adam Thielen (50% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP WR14)

WR 6- Tyreek Hill (46% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP WR 9)

WR 8- Juju Smith-Schuster (59% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP WR 18)

WR 9- Robert Woods (55% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP WR 42)

WR 11- Keenan Allen (59% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP WR 6)

WR 15- Tyler Boyd (73% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP Undrafted)

WR 18-Tyler Lockett (50% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP WR 53)

WR 20- Emmanuel Sanders (56% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP WR 23)

WR 21- Jarvis Landry (64% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP WR 17)

WR 23- Julian Edelman (55% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP WR 29)

WR 24- Adam Humphries (83% of routes in the slot) (2018 ADP Undrafted)

It’s also a bonus to mention how many of these guys significantly outperformed their ADP. Remember- there’s value to be had in slot wideouts especially later in the draft. What do you think? Agree or disagree let me know on Twitter @FootballBry15. Don’t forget to listen to Jet Set Fantasy Football (rate, review subscribe) every week for stupid games and fantasy football discussion. 

I Keep Drafting James Washington and I’m Not Mad About It.

I’m a simple man. I like beer, sports and not overpaying in my rookie drafts. This year there is a cluster of wide-outs at the top of the class and none of them have managed to separate from the pack. So when I am on the clock and all the top tier running backs are off the board and those pass catchers are staring me in the face I do what any sane man would do- trade back and let other people make the choice for me. Somehow James Washington always ends up in my lap.

So far I have picked up James Washington in one superflex rookie draft and one auction draft (draft position and dollar value listed below). He seems to be undervalued in most circles and seems to be considered at the bottom of that top tier. However when I look at his situation compared to other prospects I would not be surprised if he becomes one of the more successful of the group.

Landing in Pittsburgh he has joined one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league. With Martavius being shipped off to Oakland it seems apparent that Washington will slide into the third wide receiver spot. I think he compliments Juju well since he is more of a down field threat and is going to be matched up against defenders that will probably be much less talented than him. Of course AB is still top dog in Pittsburgh, but this offense has a chance to be special this year and in years to come. With AB turning 30 next month and Bell’s uncertainty, the changing of the guard in Pittsburgh might be sooner than we care to admit.

When I look at the wide-outs that are consistently going before Washington I am not convinced they will have more success. Courtland Sutton ends up immediately slotted behind DT and Sanders (and possibly Carlos Henderson if he can get back on track) on an offense led by the always under impressing Case Keenum. D.J. Moore has a chance to produce in Carolina, but I am on record saying that I think he is overvalued and does not fit the kind of receiver that has excelled with Cam Newton (aka: big receivers). Calvin Ridley lands on an offense that fell off the rails in Atlanta after Kyle Shanahan left for the 49ers job. Christian Kirk and Anthony Miller are two guys I was impressed with but both are joining teams with unproven quarterbacks at the helm and offenses that are coming off of lackluster 2017 seasons.

All this being said I am not convinced that any or all of these pass catchers will end up busting or becoming fantasy relevant. James Washington has just as good a chance (if not better) than some or all of the other top tier guys to succeed. So if you are like me and aren’t sold on any of these top tier pass catchers trade back and take a guy who you can get for a lot cheaper than these other prospects.

P.S. FWIW I was able to snag Washington with pick 2.11 in a 12 team superflex rookie draft. All the above mentioned WRs were taken before him as well as Dante Pettis and Michael Gallup. In my superflex auction I was able to grab Washington for $134 while Sutton went for $221, Ridley went for $256 and Kirk went for $180. Value is to be had here my friends!

 

Free Falling: A Look at the Best Prospects Available

Day 2 was a doozy. We had a busy second round for skill positions followed by a relatively quiet third round. That being said let’s take a look at what players are left on the board heading into the final day of the draft.

Running Backs

John Kelly, Tennessee- A consensus early second round rookie pick Kelly is still on the board. Historically we know that draft position does not matter to running backs nearly as much as WRs or QBs but it is worth noting he is still here heading into Day 3. A bigger back with natural pass catching ability but questions regarding vision, he could still find a nice landing spot in the fourth or fifth round. Any later than that I am officially worrying about his NFL value.

Kalen Ballage, Arizona St- Another RB you are seeing go consistently in the second round of rookie drafts but hasn’t been selected yet this weekend. A big back that has good vision but may not use his size to his advantage coming from a school not known for pushing out NFL talent still has a chance to find a nice home. Again if he slips past the fifth round is where I start questioning his status as a second round pick.

Josh Adams, Notre Dame- Full disclosure: I am a life long Notre Dame fan. I try to keep it out of my evaluations but sometimes it is hard (that’s what she said). A Heisman candidate who benefited from being behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, I am not surprised he slipped to the final day but sometimes NFL evaluators can be blinded to college stats and big time size and speed. Adams is another guy that may have questionable vision between the tackles but I like as a third round RB choice in rookie drafts because of his size and big time speed. Keep an eye on him tomorrow.

 

Wide Receivers

Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame- Did I spell his name right? Honestly who cares. ESB is the highest touted WR prospect left on the board. Labeled as a project wideout with amazing intangibles, it is somewhat surprising he has lasted this long. After all there have been prospects taken higher with much less upside. If he lands in a spot where he can develop and learn I think he could be a rare late round steal at the WR position. His fall has probably pushed him out of the second round of rookie drafts but if you can grab him in the early third he has as good a chance as any other player there to make an impact on your roster.  He could end up being a Dorial Green Beckham but it is better to take the risk on high ceiling players in the third round or later in rookie drafts that could end up surprising. FWIW: The big difference between him and DGB is intelligence. DGB was a knucklehead and ESB is an intelligent multilingual prospect with a good head on his shoulders. If anyone can figure it out from the final day of the draft it will be him.

I was going to write about Antonio Callaway here (and I suppose technically I am) but he is not a surprise faller for me. Rumors are failing a drug test at the combine could be the final nail is his weed laced coffin. I think he gets taken as a seventh round flyer at worst based on his talent but I am not investing more than a late third round pick in him. He has a ton of barriers to overcome and he may be more concerned with getting high on his own than rising through the rookie ranks. See if he lands somewhere far away from Florida.

Round 1 Dynasty Football Recap

The Newest Member of The Seattle Seahawks Backfield, SDSU Alum Rashaad Penny

With the first round of the draft officially in the books I wanted to share my thoughts and recap the fantasy relevant picks. So enough small talk here we go.

Pick 1: Cleveland Browns- QB Baker Mayfield:
A surprise pick for the Browns since everyone was expecting Sam Darnold or Josh Allen to go here.
Mayfield was my #1 QB coming into the draft and it is not going to change. He has a good top target in Josh Gordon (assuming he stays out of trouble) and a great possession receiver with Jarvis Landry.
If Njoku continues to improve and they add another running back in day 2 of the draft this offense could be turning around quicker than some would think.

Pick 2: New York Giants- RB Saquon Barkley:
The undoubted rookie 1.01 goes second overall in the draft. That offensive line needs some work but if you have the 1.01 rookie pick don’t think twice about picking him.
This offense has a lot of weapons and can be productive and Saquon is going to be one of the top running backs for many many years to come.

Pick 3: New York Jets- QB Sam Darnold:
A great pick for the Jets. He needs to work on cutting down on turnovers but has all the traits of a franchise QB. I want to see the Jets add more weapons for him but a good spot for the USC QB.

Pick 7: Buffalo Bills- QB Josh Allen:
My least favorite of the top QB prospects but it was rumored that the Bills were in love with him so they traded up and got their guy. Big hands and a rocket arm aren’t all you need to succeed in the NFL and if there is one first round QB I would bet on to bust it would be Allen.
How much of an upgrade will Allen be to Tyrod Taylor? Both athletic QBs who don’t check the ball down, love airing it out and have questionable accuracy. Are the Bills the new Browns?

Pick 10: Arizona Cardinals- QB Josh Rosen:
The Cardinals trade up and get a unique QB prospect who is being mentored by Aaron Rogers. A similar quirky personality to Rogers, everyone hated on him for his lack of love for the game and having “other interests” but this is a motivated and intelligent young QB.
I worry about his injury history (shoulder injury and multiple concussions) but he has the ability to be a long term starter.
The Cardinals entire roster has more holes than a block of swiss cheese so they have a lot of things to address before I feel comfortable in investing in Josh Rosen from a fantasy perspective.

Pick 24: Carolina Panthers- WR D.J. Moore:
Fantasy enthusiasts had a bit of a lull during the middle part of this draft but the drought ended with this pick. A late riser in the draft process, Moore was a guy that I thought had a good athletic profile but lacked the makings of a bona fide consistent play-making pass catcher(poor route running and lots of body catching were my main concerns).
Pair that with an inaccurate QB in Cam Newton and this quickly becomes a recipe for disaster. Run of the mill dynasty owners are going to be taking him in the first half of the first round of dynasty leagues just because he was the first WR off the board.
Remember that does not always equate to success (reference Tavon Austin, DHB and Justin Blackmon) so don’t let that blind you. Let the better prospects like Ridley, Miller, Sutton and Kirk fall to you at even better values.

Pick 25: Baltimore Ravens- TE Hayden Hurst:
This pick really surprised me. I have Mike Gesicki and Dallas Goedert as much better weapons (from a fantasy perspective) but this becomes one of those famous picks that will help the Ravens more than it will your fantasy team.
Hurst is still an athletic TE with good hands and run after the catch ability but still does not compare to the impact that the previously mentioned TEs will have. Keep your rankings as they are with Hurst as a distant third.

Pick 26: Atlanta Falcons- Calvin Ridley WR:
Man what a fantastic spot for Ridley. Pair him with another Bama WR alumni and let him feast on the single coverage he gets thanks to Julio.
There have been rumblings that Julio is not happy with the Falcons organization, but this is an exciting weapon to add to help take some pressure off Jones. Ridley could make an instant impact which is important considering he is one of the older WR prospects in the draft.
If he goes off of the board in your rookie draft as the first WR I would not be surprised. I probably wouldn’t do it but I wouldn’t be surprised.

Pick 27: Seattle Seahawks- Rashaad Penny RB:
…..Wut? Did the Seahawks forget that Michel, Guice and Chubb existed? Maybe the rumors of the bone on bone knee Michel has scared them off (spoiler: the Patriots didn’t seem to mind) and Guice’s off the field chatter spooked them but this was probably the biggest head scratcher of the night.
I am as big a Penny fan as the next guy but this might be one of the worst spots for a RB to land. The offensive line in atrocious, the only proven playmaker for Russ is Baldwin and there are a stable of (albeit oft-injured) running backs that have shown flashes in the past couple of years.
Being a first round pick would make you think that Penny will be pushed to the top of the depth chart but color me skeptical as to how Penny produces in the beginning of his career.

Pick 31: New England Patriots- Sony Michel RB:
My #2 RB and overall rookie lands in an interesting spot. A crowded backfield with Burkhead, White, Jeremy Hill and Gillislee will scare some dynasty owners off, but not this guy. The consensus will say that Sony has the opportunity to step in as a two down back and leave the receiving work to White and Burkhead. I disagree.
Georgia was a run first team and did not feature the backfield in their passing attack. I believe Sony still has the ability to excel in the pass game due to his pass blocking (which is above average compared to most backs coming out of college) and he can catch just as well as any other back in this class.
It will be too difficult to keep him off of the field. He may be another player that slips a few spots to maybe that 1.04-1.06 range in rookie drafts which means I turn into a 90s boy band and start singing “Baby buy buy buy!”

Pick 32: Baltimore Ravens- Lamar Jackson QB:
The Ravens were busy bees tonight busting out trades left and right. There was some buzz around their connection to Jackson earlier in the draft but they passed him up until the last pick where they decided to trade back up to grab their guy.
Probably one of the biggest fallers today, Jackson ends up in an interesting spot. Obviously Flacco is their starting QB this year but his contract is set up that he has no more guaranteed money left so the Ravens can cut/trade him without much concern once they feel  Jackson is ready to go.
An obvious enigma to the QB position, Jackson is someone I am willing to invest a late second-early third round pick in if I don’t like the players left and I have a QB need. He doesn’t have as defined a path to a starting role like these other top QB prospects which makes him less valuable to your more short sighted dynasty owners.
I would bet he is available in the middle of the third round in most single QB rookie drafts which is a great spot to grab a potential dual threat QB for the coming years. Even if he struggles as a passer early in his career his legs provide almost guaranteed points because he is such an electric athlete.

That’s my evaluation of our Day 1 Rookie Draft Picks. Time to get amped for Day 2.